Police statistics show an increase in the number of reported offences, but that does not necessarily mean that young people are committing more crimes than before. There may be other explanations, says Stian Lid, a criminologist and researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR) at OsloMet.
"We need a more nuanced understanding of crime statistics than the one presented by the police and the media. Without that, we risk implementing the wrong measures," he says.
Lid points to the extensive media attention surrounding youth violence in recent years. Reports often describe what appears to be an explosion in violence, frequently based on figures from police crime statistics.
The statistics do show a significant increase in offences committed by children and young people.
In 2023, 21,800 criminal offences committed by individuals under the age of 18 were reported to the police, an increase of 28 per cent from the previous year. The statistics also show that children under the age of 15 accounted for 36 per cent of all reported offences involving minors.
"But it is important to point out that the situation is not as bleak as it may appear," says Lid.
Crime statistics should not be taken at face value
Lid stresses that he does, of course, see some worrying developments in youth crime. These include cases of serious violence, such as knife attacks and large-scale fights involving multiple participants in which young people are injured.
Even so, he believes the overall situation is far better than the picture often presented by the media or the police. This assessment is based on one key issue: how we read and interpret crime statistics.
He is critical of the one-dimensional narrative suggesting that young people have become increasingly violent and that the situation is spiralling out of control.
"Crime statistics need to be interpreted far more carefully than most other statistics. That is why I am concerned about the lack of reflection on what these figures actually show," he explains.
What do we really know?
So, what do the statistics actually tell us?
For example, although cases of violence have increased, the overall numbers remain relatively low, something that is rarely highlighted by either the media or the police, according to Lid.
"In 2017, children below the age of criminal responsibility were registered as being involved in 206 cases of assault and 22 cases of bodily harm. That is not a particularly large number. By 2022, the figures had more than doubled, and they increased further in 2023. Even so, the overall volume remains quite low."
The way we present the increase has a major impact on the picture that emerges, he argues.
"If you present the increase in percentage terms, it exceeds 100 per cent. That sounds dramatic. But when you look at the actual number of reported incidents, you see that the figures are still relatively low."
Moreover, the increase in violent crime among 15 to 17-year-olds has been much more modest than among children under 15. The prevalence among 15 to 17-year-olds is also lower than at the previous peak in 2007 and 2008.
"This adds important context. The different trends among children below and above the age of criminal responsibility suggest that many of the youngest children reported for violent offences do not go on to develop a serious criminal career. For most young people who end up in police records, it happens only once (ssb.no)."
If you present the increase in percentage terms, it exceeds 100 per cent. That sounds dramatic. But when you look at the actual number of reported incidents, you see that the figures are still relatively low.– Stian Lid
Stable trends in survey data
According to these surveys, levels of violence among lower and upper secondary school students have remained relatively stable over the past decade.
"In 2022, one in four boys in lower secondary school reported having been involved in a physical fight during the previous year."
The surveys also show that violence is most prevalent in the early teenage years and then declines as young people get older.
"When we compare trends in survey-based measures of youth violence with police-recorded violence, we see different patterns. That is an important observation," says the researcher.
Are we reporting more incidents?
Although police statistics show that more young people are being reported for criminal offences, that does not necessarily mean that today’s youth are more criminal than previous generations, according to Lid.
Instead, it may be that society has become more willing to report violence and threats involving young people than it was only a few years ago.
"Cooperation between the police, schools and parents has become closer in recent years, and research suggests that both schools and parents are now more inclined to involve the police at an earlier stage."
This has led schools to improve the registration of violent incidents and develop clearer guidelines on when incidents should be reported to the police. While this changes how society responds to violence, it does not necessarily mean that more violence is taking place, the criminologist points out.
"When the number of cases registered by the police is relatively low to begin with, even a small increase in reporting by schools and parents can have a substantial impact on the statistics."
Only reported and recorded cases
Lid also emphasises that police statistics only include cases that are reported to and registered by the police.
As a result, the types of incidents that are reported, as well as the police's own priorities, have a significant influence on the picture presented by the statistics.
"This is rarely communicated by police leadership in press releases, interviews or public debates. The media then tend to present the figures as the whole truth. Yet only a nuanced understanding of the statistics can help us develop appropriate measures for the diverse group of young people represented in police records," Lid concludes.
Stian Lid and his colleague, researcher Lars Roar Frøyland, took part in the OsloMet event Youth Crime: Should We Fear Current Developments? on 6 March 2024. A recording of the seminar is available on OsloMet's website (film.oslomet.no).
About this article
The English version of this article has been translated with the help of Copilot. The translation of this article has been reviewed by OsloMet.
